Implied Probability Calculator
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How to use the implied probability calculator
Pick your odds format (Decimal, Fractional or American) and type in the odds. The calculator shows the implied probability as a percentage, the same chance written as 1 in something, and the odds against. Use the - and + buttons to nudge decimal odds. If you already have a probability in mind, use the reverse box to turn it into fair decimal and American odds. Decimal is the format Canadian sportsbooks display by default.
What implied probability means
- Implied probability: the chance of winning that a set of odds represents.
- As a chance (1 in N): the same probability expressed as a frequency, so 40% is 1 in 2.5.
- Odds against: how many losses you would expect per win, so 1.5 to 1 means roughly three losses for every two wins.
- Fair odds: the odds that exactly match a probability, before any bookmaker margin is added.
How implied probability is calculated
Everything routes through decimal odds, then a single division gives the probability:
- Implied probability
100 ÷ decimal odds - Fair odds from a %
100 ÷ probability - As a chance
1 in decimal odds - Fractional → Decimal
(top ÷ bottom) + 1 - American → Decimal
+: odds ÷ 100 + 1 · −: 100 ÷ |odds| + 1
The probabilities never add up to 100
Add up the implied probability of every outcome in a market and the total comes to more than 100%. That surplus is the bookmaker margin, the "vig", and it is the reason the odds you are offered are always a little shorter than the true chance. The implied probability is also your break-even win rate: win at exactly that rate and you finish level over time.
For information only. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.